Repository of Research and Investigative Information

Repository of Research and Investigative Information

Ilam University of Medical Sciences

APPLYING TIME SERIES SIR MODEL TO INVESTIGATE EPIDEMIOLOGY AND CALCULATE MINIMUM VACCINATION COVERAGE AGAINST MEASLES IN IRAN

Fri Apr 19 13:24:34 2024

(2017) APPLYING TIME SERIES SIR MODEL TO INVESTIGATE EPIDEMIOLOGY AND CALCULATE MINIMUM VACCINATION COVERAGE AGAINST MEASLES IN IRAN. Journal of Fundamental and Applied Sciences. pp. 1349-1359. ISSN 1112-9867

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Abstract

Measles is one of the most contagious viral diseases among infants. In recent years, studying the infectious diseases using dynamic computational models has gained special importance in epidemiologic studies. One of these models is known as sensitive-infectious-resistant or SIR, which has been designed based on mathematics for answering numerous questions on emersion and silence of a disease epidemics. The present study is aimed to apply this model on epidemiology of measles in Iran, determine occurrence or non-occurrence of epidemy, and calculate the minimum vaccination coverage in Iran during 1997-2011. The data used in this study was collected from among the information and statistics of the contagious diseases of the Disease Management Center of Iran. By applying the epidemiologic SIR model on measles in Iran, values of the parameters of basic reproduction ratio (Ro) and probability of vaccination coverage (P) for infection in various years were obtained. Based on the Ro results, it can be said that measles disease is still in the epidemic phase, and country's required vaccination coverage for haltering measles epidemy has got a decreasing trend. The predicted values of P for the years 2008 and 2011 are 9.6714543 and 10.08324, respectively. Regarding the obtained results, it is suggested to the Health Ministry to establish a taskforce in order to make decisions on revision and amendment of the measles vaccination program.

Item Type: Article
Creators:
CreatorsEmail
Falahi, S.UNSPECIFIED
Pakzad, I.UNSPECIFIED
Koohi, A. K.UNSPECIFIED
Mohammadipour, H.UNSPECIFIED
Kohzadi, Z.UNSPECIFIED
Hashempour, T.UNSPECIFIED
Dehghani, B.UNSPECIFIED
Fazeli, M.UNSPECIFIED
Keywords: Time Series SIR Model Epidemiology Vaccination Coverage Measles Iran virus Science & Technology - Other Topics
Divisions:
Page Range: pp. 1349-1359
Journal or Publication Title: Journal of Fundamental and Applied Sciences
Journal Index: ISI
Volume: 9
Identification Number: https://doi.org/10.4314/jfas.v9i1s.786
ISSN: 1112-9867
Depositing User: مهندس مهدی شریفی
URI: http://eprints.medilam.ac.ir/id/eprint/365

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