Repository of Research and Investigative Information

Repository of Research and Investigative Information

Ilam University of Medical Sciences

Supply-and-demand projections for the health workforce at a provincial level from 2015 to 2025 in Ilam, Iran

Wed Nov 30 06:27:45 2022

(2020) Supply-and-demand projections for the health workforce at a provincial level from 2015 to 2025 in Ilam, Iran. Proceedings of Singapore Healthcare. p. 10. ISSN 2010-1058

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Abstract

Background: Human resources are the key component of health systems. It is critical to have the right number of human resources at anytime and anywhere in the health system. This article aims to help local health decision makers to identify potential gaps between the future supply and demand of human resources and to make necessary changes in medical training processes to fill the gap. Methods: An eight-stage process was applied to project the supply and demand of health workers in Ilam province in 2025 for the following fields: public health, environmental health, general medicine, dentistry, pharmacy, nursing and midwifery. To estimate the demand for human resources, a mainly population-based model (manpower-to-population ratio) was applied. A modified version of the Australian dynamic stock and flow model was used to predict the supply of new recruits in 2025. The potential surplus or shortfall in the health workforce was calculated by comparing the supply and demand in 2025. Results: The demand and supply projections for the chosen fields were estimated respectively as: general medicine 457. 709; pharmacy 131, 86; dentistry 86, 251; nursing 949, 1657; midwifery 24, 247; public health 182, 211; and environmental health 92, 225. Conclusions: The current trend of medical graduates will meet the need for human resources in 2025, and there is no need to increase medical student admission. The Education Deputy of Ilam Medical University should take into account the health needs of its catchment area in medical educational processes and training new health-care staff.

Item Type: Article
Creators:
CreatorsEmail
Bazyar, M.UNSPECIFIED
Hekmat, S. N.UNSPECIFIED
Rafiei, S.UNSPECIFIED
Mirzaei, A.UNSPECIFIED
Otaghi, M.UNSPECIFIED
Khorshidi, A.UNSPECIFIED
Mohammadnejad, S.UNSPECIFIED
Tahmasebi, S.UNSPECIFIED
Amarloei, A.UNSPECIFIED
Jalilian, M.UNSPECIFIED
Keywords: Human resources supply demand estimation projection prediction health workforce General & Internal Medicine
Divisions:
Page Range: p. 10
Journal or Publication Title: Proceedings of Singapore Healthcare
Journal Index: ISI
Identification Number: https://doi.org/10.1177/2010105820943239
ISSN: 2010-1058
Depositing User: مهندس مهدی شریفی
URI: http://eprints.medilam.ac.ir/id/eprint/3050

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