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Ilam University of Medical Sciences

A time series analysis of environmental and metrological factors impact on cutaneous leishmaniasis incidence in an endemic area of Dehloran, Iran

Sun Mar 3 12:46:34 2024

(2017) A time series analysis of environmental and metrological factors impact on cutaneous leishmaniasis incidence in an endemic area of Dehloran, Iran. Environmental Science and Pollution Research. pp. 14117-14123. ISSN 0944-1344

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Abstract

The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between the environmental and metrological variables and cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) transmission and its prediction in a region susceptible to this disease prevalence using a time series model. The accurate locations of 4437 CL diagnosed from 2011 to 2015 were obtained to be used in the time series model. Temperature, number of days with temperature over 30 degrees C, and number of earthquake were related to CL incidence using the Seasonal Auto-correlated Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model according to the Box-Jenkins method. In addition, the relationship between land use and surface soil type in 500- and 1000-m radius around the CL patients were investigated. The SARIMA models showed significant associations between environmental and meteorological variables and CL incidence adjusted for sea-sonality and auto-correlation. The result indicated that there are need more robust preventive programs in earthquake-prone areas with high temperature and inceptisol soil type than other areas. In addition, the region with these characteristics should be considered as high-risk areas for CL prevalence.

Item Type: Article
Creators:
CreatorsEmail
Nikonahad, A.UNSPECIFIED
Khorshidi, A.UNSPECIFIED
Ghaffari, H. R.UNSPECIFIED
Aval, H. E.UNSPECIFIED
Miri, M.UNSPECIFIED
Amarloei, A.UNSPECIFIED
Nourmoradi, H.UNSPECIFIED
Mohammadi, A.UNSPECIFIED
Keywords: Cutaneous leishmaniasis Environmental factors Earthquake Time series analysis visceral-leishmaniasis kala-azar temporal dynamics risk-factors tunisia brazil sudan map Environmental Sciences & Ecology
Divisions:
Page Range: pp. 14117-14123
Journal or Publication Title: Environmental Science and Pollution Research
Journal Index: ISI
Volume: 24
Number: 16
Identification Number: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-017-8962-0
ISSN: 0944-1344
Depositing User: مهندس مهدی شریفی
URI: http://eprints.medilam.ac.ir/id/eprint/296

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