Repository of Research and Investigative Information

Repository of Research and Investigative Information

Ilam University of Medical Sciences

Cancer in Iran 2008 to 2025: Recent incidence trends and short-term predictions of the future burden

Sun May 29 01:26:00 2022

(2021) Cancer in Iran 2008 to 2025: Recent incidence trends and short-term predictions of the future burden. International Journal of Cancer. pp. 594-605. ISSN 0020-7136

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Abstract

Policymakers require estimates of the future number of cancer patients in order to allocate finite resources to cancer prevention, treatment and palliative care. We examine recent cancer incidence trends in Iran and present predicted incidence rates and new cases for the entire country for the year 2025. We developed a method for approximating population-based incidence from the pathology-based data series available nationally for the years 2008 to 2013, and augmented this with data from the Iranian National Population-based Cancer Registry (INPCR) for the years 2014 to 2016. We fitted time-linear age-period models to the recent incidence trends to quantify the future cancer incidence burden to the year 2025, delineating the contribution of changes due to risk and those due to demographic change. The number of new cancer cases is predicted to increase in Iran from 112 000 recorded cases in 2016 to an estimated 160 000 in 2025, a 42.6 increase, of which 13.9 and 28.7 were attributed to changes in risk and population structure, respectively. In terms of specific cancers, the greatest increases in cases are predicted for thyroid (113.8), prostate (66.7), female breast (63.0) and colorectal cancer (54.1). Breast, colorectal and stomach cancers were the most common cancers in Iran in 2016 and are predicted to remain the leading cancers nationally in 2025. The increasing trends in incidence of most common cancers in Iran reinforce the need for the tailored design and implementation of effective national cancer control programs across the country.

Item Type: Article
Creators:
CreatorsEmail
Roshandel, G.UNSPECIFIED
Ferlay, J.UNSPECIFIED
Ghanbari-Motlagh, A.UNSPECIFIED
Partovipour, E.UNSPECIFIED
Salavati, F.UNSPECIFIED
Aryan, K.UNSPECIFIED
Mohammadi, G.UNSPECIFIED
Khoshaabi, M.UNSPECIFIED
Sadjadi, A.UNSPECIFIED
Davanlou, M.UNSPECIFIED
Asgari, F.UNSPECIFIED
Abadi, H.UNSPECIFIED
Aghaei, A.UNSPECIFIED
Ahmadi-Tabatabaei, S. V.UNSPECIFIED
Alizadeh-Barzian, K.UNSPECIFIED
Asgari, A.UNSPECIFIED
Asgari, N.UNSPECIFIED
Azami, S.UNSPECIFIED
Cheraghi, M.UNSPECIFIED
Enferadi, F.UNSPECIFIED
Eslami-Nasab, M.UNSPECIFIED
Fakhery, J.UNSPECIFIED
Farahani, M.UNSPECIFIED
Farrokhzad, S.UNSPECIFIED
Fateh, M.UNSPECIFIED
Ghasemi, A.UNSPECIFIED
Ghasemi-Kebria, F.UNSPECIFIED
Gholami, H.UNSPECIFIED
Golpazir, A.UNSPECIFIED
Hasanpour-Heidari, S.UNSPECIFIED
Hazar, N.UNSPECIFIED
Hoseini-Hoshyar, H.UNSPECIFIED
Izadi, M.UNSPECIFIED
Jahantigh, M.UNSPECIFIED
Jalilvand, A.UNSPECIFIED
Jazayeri, S. M.UNSPECIFIED
Kazemzadeh, Y.UNSPECIFIED
Khajavi, M.UNSPECIFIED
Khalednejad, M.UNSPECIFIED
Khanloghi, M.UNSPECIFIED
Kooshki, M.UNSPECIFIED
Madani, A.UNSPECIFIED
Mirheidari, M.UNSPECIFIED
Mohammadifar, H.UNSPECIFIED
Moinfar, Z.UNSPECIFIED
Mojtahedzadeh, Y.UNSPECIFIED
Morsali, A.UNSPECIFIED
Motidost-Komleh, R.UNSPECIFIED
Mousavi, T.UNSPECIFIED
Narooei, M.UNSPECIFIED
Nasiri, M.UNSPECIFIED
Niksiar, S.UNSPECIFIED
Pabaghi, M.UNSPECIFIED
Pirnejad, H.UNSPECIFIED
Pournajaf, A.UNSPECIFIED
Pourshahi, G.UNSPECIFIED
Rahnama, A.UNSPECIFIED
Rashidpoor, B.UNSPECIFIED
Ravankhah, Z.UNSPECIFIED
Rezaei, K.UNSPECIFIED
Rezaianzadeh, A.UNSPECIFIED
Sadeghi, G.UNSPECIFIED
Salehifar, M.UNSPECIFIED
Shahdadi, A.UNSPECIFIED
Shahi, M.UNSPECIFIED
Sharifi-Moghaddam, F.UNSPECIFIED
Sherafati, R.UNSPECIFIED
Soleimani, A.UNSPECIFIED
Soltany-hojatabad, M.UNSPECIFIED
Somi, M. H.UNSPECIFIED
Yadolahi, S.UNSPECIFIED
Yaghoubi-Ashrafi, M.UNSPECIFIED
Zareiyan, A.UNSPECIFIED
Poustchi, H.UNSPECIFIED
Zendehdel, K.UNSPECIFIED
Ostovar, A.UNSPECIFIED
Janbabaei, G.UNSPECIFIED
Raeisi, A.UNSPECIFIED
Weiderpass, E.UNSPECIFIED
Malekzadeh, R.UNSPECIFIED
Bray, F.UNSPECIFIED
Keywords: cancer incidence Iran predictions time trends Oncology
Divisions:
Page Range: pp. 594-605
Journal or Publication Title: International Journal of Cancer
Journal Index: ISI
Volume: 149
Number: 3
Identification Number: https://doi.org/10.1002/ijc.33574
ISSN: 0020-7136
Depositing User: مهندس مهدی شریفی
URI: http://eprints.medilam.ac.ir/id/eprint/3447

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